Why Arteta's improved record against the 'Big six' can give Arsenal some hope at the Etihad

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This Sunday there’s a huge showdown at the Etihad with huge ramifications on the Premier League title race. It’s the master vs the budding apprentice. League leaders Arsenal travel to Manchester City, who are one point behind the Gunners and Liverpool in the table. Going to Pep Guardiola’s Man City is a daunting task for any side, and Mikel Arteta has never even taken a point at the ground in five previous attempts in the Premier League. However, Arsenal did beat the Sky Blues at the Emirates earlier this season, breaking a nine year winless league run against Man City.      

Club Comparison

Manchester City

Arsenal FC

Premier League

Premier League

€1.27bn

Market Value

€1.12bn

First Tier

League Level

First Tier

€259.60m

Expenditures 23/24

€234.94m

Pep Guardiola

Managers

Mikel Arteta

Full Club Comparison

Arteta’s record against the traditional ‘Big six’ has drastically improved in the last couple of seasons, and this term, Arsenal boast the best record from the games between just the ‘Big six’ clubs in the Premier League. The Gunners are averaging two points per game, and are unbeaten against the other five teams in that group. In the past that wasn’t always the case, with Arteta suffering a number of defeats in the big games. Nevertheless, Arsenal’s improved record against the ‘Big six’ may give them serious hope of taking something from the Etihad this Sunday. And if they do, the Gunners would be in a great position to attempt to claim their first title in 20 years going into the Premier League run-in. 

From disasters to big game players - How Arteta’s record against the ’Big six’ improved

For many years before Arteta, and even at the beginning of the Spaniard’s tenure, games against the bigger clubs were surrounded by fear. Not only were Arsenal being beaten, they were being taken apart. A 6-0 defeat to Chelsea. A 5-1 loss to Liverpool. A 5-0 drubbing to Man City. Between 2017 and 2023, Arsenal lost by three or more goals to just Liverpool and Man City nine times in the Premier League alone. Watching pundits criticise Arsenal's lack of a backbone seemed to become a formality that followed the Gunners in big games.

[Graphic from graphic team]

When Arteta took charge, Arsenal hadn’t won at Old Trafford in the league for 13 years. They hadn’t won at Stamford Bridge for eight years. They hadn’t even taken a point at Anfield for three years. They hadn’t beaten Man City in the Premier League home or away for four years, and hadn’t won at the Etihad since 2015. Arteta’s Arsenal have put all those records to bed bar one - they still haven’t won at the Etihad. That could change this Sunday.

As can be seen in the graphic above, Arsenal’s record against the big six teams was pretty poor at the beginning of Arteta’s tenure. In his first three seasons, his best points per game ratio against the ‘Big six’ clubs was 1.3ppg. However last season, Arsenal amassed 1.9ppg against the ‘Big six’ and are now averaging 2ppg this season in the same category. Arteta’s Arsenal have transformed into big game players. Last campaign, the Gunners had more points than every other 'Big six' rival in direct games between the six teams other than Man City, who defeated Arsenal home and away in the Premier League.

When we study games just solely against their direct title rivals this season in Man City and Liverpool, we can also see a drastic improvement this campaign. As can be viewed above, Arsenal have seven points from a possible nine against Man City and Liverpool this season, and are already three points better off against those two teams than ever before in the Premier League under Arteta. A baffling statistic when you consider they still have to play Man City again this weekend. The North London side have beaten both Man City and Liverpool at home, and this season Man City are yet to beat either of their title rivals in the league, home or away.

Another key factor to any potential Arsenal success at the Etihad this Sunday may be placed on the shoulders of Declan Rice. When Arsenal beat Man City to the €116.6m signing of Rice last summer it felt like a key moment in the journey of the Gunners trying to reach the ridiculously high standards Guardiola's team has set in the last five years. Rice has had a sensational first season for Arsenal - highlighted by the fact he is one of the favourites to win the PFA Premier League player of the season award. Able to act as a defensive screen or play in a dynamic no.8 role, Rice has offered so much to Arteta's team and has taken them to the next level this campaign.

When it comes to direct showdowns between Arteta and Guardiola, the Arsenal manager has found it very difficult. As you can see in the comparison above, Arteta has just three wins against Man City in the 11 games he has faced them. Only one in the Premier League (this season at the Emirates) with the other two victories coming in the FA Cup semi-final in Arteta's first season and a penalty shootout win in the Community Shield at the presumption of this season. Arsenal are in a better position than ever to do their first league double over Man City since 2008. But it will take a monstrous performance from Arteta's men this Sunday at the home of the treble winners.